In a Flap Over Bird Flu

By Felicia Russell

“I can say with near certainty that there will be a flu epidemic next year,” Dr. Sam Bozzette, an infectious disease researcher, declared at the Conference on World Affairs.

Bozzette is a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, and a medical professor at the University of California San Diego. His current research focuses on HIV/AIDS, but he spoke to an audience of about 50 people in the University Memorial Center at a Thursday afternoon lecture called “Duck!!! It’s the Bird Flu!”

Somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 people will die in next year’s flu epidemic, said Bozzette. But, this is normal. Every year there is a seasonal flu epidemic, an outbreak that affects a large number of people at the same time. In 2005, 313 people in Denver died from influenza and pneumonia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The avian flu is different. This family of viruses is found widely in birds and is very deadly to humans, but hasn’t “learned” how to easily attach itself to the human respiratory tract, said Bozzette.

Worldwide, there have been only 194 confirmed cases of the bird flu in humans, but more than half of the people infected have died from the virus, according to the World Health Organization.

Most of the people who became ill caught the virus from an infected bird or its excrement, said Bozzette. Currently, the virus does not readily spread from one person to another.

However, if the human flu virus and avian flu virus infect the same animal and exchange genetic information, the bird flu may learn how to infect people, he said. Then the bird flu could easily pass from one person to the next.

Scientists and doctors are concerned that the avian flu will become pandemic, infecting people worldwide and jumping easily from person to person.

Will Styler, a CU junior, came to the lecture to learn how he can protect himself if there is a pandemic. Styler lives on-campus in Baker Hall and says that he’s seen how quickly other sicknesses have moved through the student body. He particularly remembers two years ago when a nasty stomach virus kept students hovering over toilets for days.

“I literally watched it walk down the hall,” Styler said.

During the question and answer period, Styler asked Bozzette how students living in the dorms could protect themselves.

Bozzette said that people in communal living settings should avoid any unnecessary social contact such as visiting other dorms. And, everyone, regardless of their living situation, should wash their hands often, he said.

“Sooner or later there is going to be a pandemic,” Bozzette said. “There is going to be another flu pandemic.”

When there is a pandemic it will likely last for four or five months like the 1918 flu pandemic, he said.

“There’s no question that relatively early in a serious outbreak, the healthcare system will be overwhelmed,” Bozzette said.

He recommended that people stock up on household goods in the event of a pandemic so that they can avoid frequent exposure to possible carriers of the avian flu.

“You will encounter people who look perfectly well who are shedding the flu virus,” Bozzette said. Therefore, it’s best to avoid contact with other people as much as possible.

Scientists aren’t sure exactly how the flu virus is spread. Studies indicate that the flu may be passed by touch, virus-carrying droplets from a cough or sneeze, or small particles in the air capable of traveling long distances, Bozzette said.

Bozzette said that more funding and research is needed to help scientists understand how the flu is passed from person to person. This type of knowledge will help communities stockpile the right types of supplies to combat an outbreak.

For example, if the virus is passed in droplets, then a standard medical face mask will be sufficient. However, if the virus moves on small particles through the air a more sophisticated mask will be necessary.

Unfortunately, some things like hospital beds, flu vaccine and face masks may be in short supply.

“We don’t have a lot of things you’d want to have if there were a pandemic,” Bozzette said. “It seems that immunization and cutting down contact on a voluntary basis is about all we can do.”